This is crazy. On 16/3, experts asked to forecast US COVID-19 cases come 29/3.
— Robert Wiblin (@robertwiblin) March 31, 2020
Only 3 of 18 had the right answer anywhere near their 80% confidence interval.
OK, was the outcome (123k) a surprising one? No!
A simple-as-hell exponential growth extrapolation forecast ~130k!
1/2 pic.twitter.com/UAQD2Mt95P
via Twitter https://twitter.com/robertwiblin
March 31, 2020 at 06:40PM
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